I hold a PhD in probabilistic machine learning and advise businesses on how to use AI effectively for a living so yes.
IMHO, there is simply nothing indicating that it’s close. Sure LLMs can do some incredibly clever sounding word-extrapolation, but the current “reasoning models” still don’t actually reason. They are just LLMs with some extra steps.
There is lots of information out there on the topic so I’m not going to write a long justification here. Gary Marcus has some good points if you want to learn more about what the skeptics say.
So, how would you define AGI, and what sorts of tasks require reasoning? I would have thought earning the gold medal on the IMO would have been a reasoning task, but I’m happy to learn why I’m wrong.
I think we also should require to set some energy limits to those tests. Before it was assumed that those tests are done by humans, that can do those tests after eating some crackers and a bit of water.
Now we are comparing that to massive data centers that need nuclear reactors to have enough power to work through these problems…
I definitely think that’s remarkable. But I don’t think scoring high on an external measure like a test is enough to prove the ability to reason. For reasoning, the process matters, IMO.
Reasoning models work by Chain-of-Thought which has been shown to provide some false reassurances about their process https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.04388 .
Maybe passing some math test is enough evidence for you but I think it matters what’s inside the box. For me it’s only proved that tests are a poor measure of the ability to reason.
I hold a PhD in probabilistic machine learning and advise businesses on how to use AI effectively for a living so yes.
IMHO, there is simply nothing indicating that it’s close. Sure LLMs can do some incredibly clever sounding word-extrapolation, but the current “reasoning models” still don’t actually reason. They are just LLMs with some extra steps.
There is lots of information out there on the topic so I’m not going to write a long justification here. Gary Marcus has some good points if you want to learn more about what the skeptics say.
So, how would you define AGI, and what sorts of tasks require reasoning? I would have thought earning the gold medal on the IMO would have been a reasoning task, but I’m happy to learn why I’m wrong.
I think we also should require to set some energy limits to those tests. Before it was assumed that those tests are done by humans, that can do those tests after eating some crackers and a bit of water.
Now we are comparing that to massive data centers that need nuclear reactors to have enough power to work through these problems…
I definitely think that’s remarkable. But I don’t think scoring high on an external measure like a test is enough to prove the ability to reason. For reasoning, the process matters, IMO.
Reasoning models work by Chain-of-Thought which has been shown to provide some false reassurances about their process https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.04388 .
Maybe passing some math test is enough evidence for you but I think it matters what’s inside the box. For me it’s only proved that tests are a poor measure of the ability to reason.