Games@lemmy.worldbynoir_chat@lemmy.world
1 day

I built a free game where you try to beat a couch at timing the market. Over 80k plays later, the couch usually wins.

beatthecouch.com English

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.world/post/49878453

Solo project I’ve been building this month, wanted to share here. The rules:

You get $10,000 and two secret years of real S&P 500 history, drawn from 1928 to 2019 (daily data, dividends included; your cash earns T-bill rates while you hide). One button: BUY or SELL. Your opponent is a couch. It buys at the start and never moves.

Every finished game is audited by 1,000 monkeys. It’s a permutation test 1,000 replays with your same time in the market and same number of trades, on random days. Beat 90% of the monkeys and your win is stamped TIMED THE MARKET. Anything less is stamped LUCKY, in red ink, on your settlement document.

About 84,000 games have been played so far. The couch has won 63% of them. Roughly 1 game in 9 ends in a win that survives the monkey audit.

There’s also a daily hand, same secret window for everyone, streaks, and a public ledger of humanity vs the couch.

If you have time, I’d love feedback, and I will answer any methodology questions, thanks!

48
    BEAT THE COUCH
    beatthecouch.com
    $10,000. Two secret years of real market history. One button. You will probably lose to a couch.
    • criss_cross@lemmy.worldEnglish
      6 hours

      These are always good counter arguments to technical analysis. But I’d love to see something where you get industry news surrounding the stocks and have to see if you can also trade based on the news and noise or if the couch wins there.

      • Obi@sopuli.xyzEnglish
        2 hours

        In these older years maybe that would change something but in the modern era the market is totally irrational and doesn’t react to news with any kind of sense.

    • SkunkWorkz@lemmy.worldEnglish
      10 hours

      Maybe add a volume chart to measure market activity, a candle stick chart to see the intra day OHLC and a moving average line chart. Just to see if people fare better compared to just an end of day line chart.

    • Caveman@lemmy.worldEnglish
      10 hours

      I would like a slider mode. It’s very hard to do any sensible strategy with an all or nothing approach. If market goes up by 30% I want to progressively sell and vice versa

      • noir_chat@lemmy.worldEnglish
        10 hours

        it’s over two years so while not long term, it’s not short either. lots of ups and downs. but i’m thinking of adding a career mode with 2x10 years, start with 10k, see where you end up kind of thing.

    • Dyskolos@lemmy.zipEnglish
      11 hours

      As far as I can tell it only used stock that “won”. In that scenario, beating the couch is hard luck. But stock that ends up on 0, you could win more easily.

      In real life I live off of that, so a couch won’t always win 😋

      • ikidd@lemmy.dbzer0.comEnglish
        1 hour

        I got 2 years just post 1929 and the only reason I won was I sold early and only lost 30% of the 10k, the couch lost 6k.

      • noir_chat@lemmy.worldEnglish
        10 hours

        it uses S&P500 which isn’t necessarily winning stocks. although it wins over the long term, lots of losing years are included here.

      • noir_chat@lemmy.worldEnglish
        1 day

        first and best use of this meme. i should think of some easter eggs related to this… congrats and hope you liked it (was a nice couch)

    • Katana314@lemmy.worldEnglish
      1 day

      It’s a little scary to learn that the reason the stock market graphs are always so jagged minute to minute through the day is because of people like these.

      • noir_chat@lemmy.worldEnglish
        1 day

        there’s opportunity in trading. but to assume you’ll get the benefit is very similar to assuming you’ll beat the casino. it’s possible, but unlikely, especially in the long term.

        • terranoid@lemmy.cafeEnglish
          1 day

          ironic that you say you’ll lose in the long term, given that investing long term in an index fund is one of the safest ways to invest.

          • noir_chat@lemmy.worldEnglish
            1 day

            yeah, that’s the whole point of the game. “trading” is the one that will not work in the long term. staying in the index fund is the good option.

            • /home/pineapplelover@lemmy.dbzer0.comEnglish
              21 hours

              Well you can game volatile stocks and you can buy and sell whenever you feel like it. Stuff like Tesla you know they’re gonna swing down or swing up because shit’s just so manipulated

    • Solemarc@lemmy.worldEnglish
      24 hours

      I beat 9/10 monkeys! Damn I’m good, I should do this for real!

    • rf_@lemmy.worldEnglish
      1 day

      Small request, can you add the couch’s win pct next to the number of games it has won? I’m lazy

      Thanks!