- FE80@lemmy.worldEnglish1 hour
It’s going to be interesting to see what happens to the stock price the next time SpaceX blows up a test rocket.
- abc@suppo.fiEnglish19 hours
I considered buying it when the IPO was but didn’t.
Now I’m looking at the comments here and I’m thinking that perhaps now is the time. Lemmy is usually the number one investment source. Just do the exact opposite what people are saying here and you’ll be rich.
- SaveTheTuaHawk@lemmy.caEnglish59 minutes
You want to play meme stocks, you’ll get better odds with gas station scratchers.
- FlashMobOfOne@lemmy.worldEnglish6 hours
The unlocks are coming soon, so I’d expect it to go even lower. If you are going to buy, the dip is what you want for sure.
18 hoursits about to be flooded with insider shares.my guess prices will go down to 30$
- Folstar@lemmus.orgEnglish1 day
We ain’t seen nothing yet. In 2-3 weeks the Q2 report will release at which 20% of stocks held by employees will be unlocked, which has hit even profitable and not-fantasy-based companies hard in the past. There will also be a wave of resignations from people who cash out and if that takes key people then investors back off even further. My guess is fElon wants the stock to stay high until next summer when he can sell, but he NEEDS it to stay high until November when early investors can cash out. He has borrowed billions from people you wouldn’t want to owe $1 and been delaying and juggling for a few years with tacking together this SpaceX nonsense amalgamation.
In 2-3 weeks the Q2 report will release at which 20% of stocks held by employees will be unlocked, which has hit even profitable and not-fantasy-based companies hard in the past.
When you consider the kind of life changing amounts of money even a few thousand shares sell for at current rates, they’d be crazy not to.
My guess is fElon wants the stock to stay high until next summer when he can sell, but he NEEDS it to stay high until November when early investors can cash out
It’s fallen maybe 12% since the IPO. You’re talking about shares that were trading for a few bucks during the original debt offerings. Marc Andressen has something like a 6000% ROI on his holdings even at current prices.
If this company dropped by 50%, it would still be worth in the $800B range. There’s no world in which current shareholders don’t make fuckoff amounts of profit. The only question is whether we’re talking nine figures or ten.
- jj4211@lemmy.worldEnglish1 hour
here’s no world in which current shareholders don’t make fuckoff amounts of profit.
Well some of the shareholders, clearly none of the peope who had to wait for the IPO are going to make some unless they managed to sell off in the 4 days after IPO.
Beyond that, we don’t know that much about the pre-IPO costs and how low it can go for them to still make out like bandits.
none of the peope who had to wait for the IPO are going to make some unless they managed to sell off in the 4 days after IPO.
Fully unironically know a few folks who did exactly that. Got in at $135 and sold on the way up to $200, because it’s insane to hold a company with a P/E of… 1000x? Something stupid like that.
we don’t know that much about the pre-IPO costs
We know what firms like Thiel’s Founder’s Fund and Andressen Horowitz paid for minority positions during the earlier funding rounds (Series A -J and assorted debt swaps). And we also know what a few of the outsider funds - EchoStar, for instance - paid for advanced shares shortly before the public offering. There were definitely some deals that were worse than others (the July 2025 Tender at $212/share was EchoStar, the December 2025 Tender at $421/share was to the company’s own employees as well as some other earlier investors).
Even then, the volume of shares sold was miniscule compared to shares outstanding.
- Folstar@lemmus.orgEnglish1 day
50% might prove optimistic. The rules that were bent for SpaceX exist for reasons. The August dump will be 4X the shares already in the wild. You are right, employees would be crazy not to sell at current rates. SpaceX employees are probably smart and/or educated enough to read the white papers on all these science fantasy projects and know they are pure fantasy. Cool stuff to fire up investment bros, but not the kind of thing they want to be tasked with trying to make reality. Point being, the floor for what an employee would not sale is going to be really low. True believers might hold, but anyone who smells the BS or just likes money will gleefully sell at 50% of current.
Meanwhile, China is making great strides in VTVL and much cheaper, open source LLMs. The EU is eager to find home grown or at the least not-American tech solutions. Every headline makes SpaceX look less and less likely to make ANY profits, let alone completely dominate supposedly multi-trillion dollar markets.
- jj4211@lemmy.worldEnglish1 hour
Even if they did believe in the possibilities, they are likely eager to offload in favor of a more diversified investment strategy.
Most folks I know that even think their company is in decent enough shape sell off RSUs quick as they can because they broadly don’t trust having a bunch in a single company stock. Especially if that stock collapsing would likely correlate with them losing their paycheck too.
- wewbull@feddit.ukEnglish1 day
SpaceX employees are probably not happy about being used as a dumping ground for an AI black hole company. I expect many are counting the days until they can leave.
The August dump will be 4X the shares already in the wild.
So, from 1% of market cap to 2%?
Spread over shareholders who still hold north of 90% of the company?
Meanwhile, China is making great strides in VTVL and much cheaper, open source LLMs. The EU is eager to find home grown or at the least not-American tech solutions.
China (and India and Brazil, among others) are all making huge investments in aerospace. The EU is certainly making a lot of noise, but because everything is privatized to fuck, what you’re left with is guess like Richard Branson paddin wallets while programs like the FCAS flounder.
Every headline makes SpaceX look less and less likely to make ANY profits
Starlink is still the modern word in satellite communication. That’s worth a few hundred billion on it’s face.
Will this advantage last? Idk. Probably not, but maybe.
At a minimum, if you want to be friendly with America, you’ll need to buy from Musk.
- Folstar@lemmus.orgEnglish20 hours
Starlink, which is nowhere near worth that much even under a best case scenario (compare to other comm companies), can make money and SpaceX still not make any profits because of the the xAI money pit. Also, no, the advantage will not last. The last 30 years of satellite communications have been one seemingly promising idea after another that fizzled out or was made obsolete. No reason to think that trend will change now, especially not when the Starlink model is extremely resource intensive.
Starlink, which is nowhere near worth that much even under a best case scenario
The existing network plus whatever Elon Musk can launch in the next twenty years, assuming an absence of competition could be a trillion dollar company. When you’ve got a monopoly on military satellite technology in a market full of warring super states, that’s a lot of economic leverage.
I’m deeply skeptical that he’ll have that edge for long. But I can at least interesting someone who thinks it’s worth a gamble.
- jj4211@lemmy.worldEnglish1 hour
The existing network will be gone within a few years. By design. If all goes well for SpaceX, it will have been replaced by a new network, which will also be gone within a few years.
Just pointing out that the existing network can’t be relied upon without continued re-investment constantly. It’s hard to build up a strong first mover advantage when the fruits of the effort burn up in the atmosphere routinely.
Who is going to pay the money for there to be a reasonable return on that value? I don’t have Starlink, I have no need for it, since there’s a cable coming into where I live. Sure there’s people that live in remote places that it’s useful for. But that’s not a lot of people.
There are military applications, but Musk is a flake not military wants to be dependent on him. Every country in the world is spending a lot of money to end their dependence on the US defense industrial complex, so there will be alternatives for military purposes.
Maybe it can work in vehicles? But if the price is too high people will just use 5G or just go without access for a while.
Starlink is just a product to fill in some edge cases. It will probably make a steady profit, but there will be competition from Europe and China before too long.
Who is going to pay the money for there to be a reasonable return on that value?
Government militaries, mostly. The Pentagon and it’s NATO allies, militaries across the Pacific Rim, Ukraine, etc.
- wewbull@feddit.ukEnglish1 day
Is that going to be 20% of stock held by each employee can be sold, or 20% of employees can sell their stock?
If it’s the latter then yes, I can see them cashing out and leaving.
- Simulation6@sopuli.xyzEnglish1 day
Is musk the first person to lose 1 trillion dollars? Quite the honor.
- mechoman444@lemmy.worldEnglish1 day
That’s because it was severely over valued for a company that produces no product and makes no profit.
To be fair it was a solid pump and dump.
- Doomsider@lemmy.worldEnglish1 day
You mean creating a worldwide communication system that has to be completely relaunched every half decade that is the exact opposite of profitable isn’t sustainable!?
- weew@lemmy.caEnglish1 day
Actually the Starlink division itself is profitable.
The unprofitable part is Twitter and xAI which got merged in right before the IPO.
SpaceX was actually on the path to being quite profitable, but then Musk tried to hide his two biggest money sinks inside it.
- Doomsider@lemmy.worldEnglish24 hours
Profitable like Tesla? That is not actually profitable without a big chunk (like a third) of their money from government subsidies.
https://www.congress.gov/119/meeting/house/117956/documents/HMKP-119-JU00-20250226-SD003.pdf
It appears SpaceX may not be as highly leveraged with the government with only 20% of its total revenue from government contracts.
It is interesting to look this up but ultimately what I mean is long term profitability considering they will have to continuously replace their satellites every 5-10 years.
The combining of his companies is a whole other level of fuckery that regulators should have smacked down instantly, but you know reality.
- kmirl@lemmy.worldEnglish2 days
I don’t know how anyone fell for this pump and dump scheme in the first place.
- chocrates@piefed.worldEnglish2 days
I do :(. I’m also worried about which of my 401ks bought in to it too
- hayvan@piefed.worldEnglish1 day
That’s the most outrageous part. The most obviously fraudulent company being given fast track to
s&p 500 (although I just read that decision was overturned)NASDAQ100 just reeks of corruption.EDIT: thanks for the correction. I don’t know much about USA or their economic stuff.
It was NASDAQ100 that let SpaceX in. S&P 500 stayed true to their rules which includes waiting at least 1 year after IPO to include it in the portfolio
- mrnngglry@sh.itjust.worksEnglish2 days
I mean you choose your investments for your 401(k). Maybe it is time to learn about which funds you’re invested in and make sure they’re appropriate for your time horizon and risk tolerance.
- gibmiser@lemmy.worldEnglish2 days
Hey you condescending asshole, they literally changed the rules to allow this into the indexes.
- Fermion@feddit.nlEnglish2 days
401(k) is managed by the employer and you can only pick from the funds they have selected. That really doesn’t leave much choice for most people.
That’s why people should consider doing a rollover into IRA anytime they have a job change and not just rollover into the new employer’s 401(k).
- Pacattack57@lemmy.worldEnglish2 days
It’s not like it’s stocks. It’s index funds and you can get a list of the funds offered. I don’t think I’ve ever seen an index fund that included SpaceX
- curbstickle@anarchist.nexusEnglish2 days
Broad-market funds like the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) and the iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market ETF (ITOT) include SpaceX.
SpaceX was added to the Nasdaq-100, meaning funds that track it, such as the Invesco QQQ ETF, hold the stock.
Benchmarks like the Russell 1000 also hold SpaceX, automatically populating funds like the iShares Russell 1000 ETF (IWB)
- CeeBee_Eh@lemmy.worldEnglish2 days
I’m not even American and even I know that the level of corruption involved in the SpaceX IPO means that even people who want nothing to do with SpaceX had their investments tied up in SpaceX.
- chocrates@piefed.worldEnglish24 hours
Man before Elon was a public figure it was so easy to fanboy. Reusable rockets is an insane feet of human engineering. At least now we have some competition in the space.
I know that it was the talented engineers at SpaceX doing that engineering and huge publicity subsidies, but it felt like a step forward.
Why can’t Elon just leave SpaceX alone.
- Smaile@lemmy.caEnglish2 days
i monitor my father investing habits to make sure he doesn’t fall for shit like this, their have been a few times iv been worried to say the least…
- hayvan@piefed.worldEnglish1 day
It’s unfortunately bigger than just the suckers being suckered. These things also get pumped a lot by “early investors”, whose strategy is to get the stock immediately and sell quickly to take adventage of the initial surge. They increase the demand a lot and contribute to that surge.
- NihilsineNefas@slrpnk.netEnglish1 day
He’s such a loser not even his stock wants to hang around with him
- Faithless@lemmy.worldEnglish1 day
Sadly Here, hé is not a loser. Things happened exactly the way he wanted to. He won big, his idiot fans lost bigger
- NihilsineNefas@slrpnk.netEnglish1 day
I wont dispute that he certainly benefited from being able to buy entire countries and pay off any regulatory agency he didnt go at with an axe, but I think we all lost out as a result, not just his fanboys
- wirebeads@lemmy.caEnglish2 days
Seeing musk fail makes me giddy. Seeing people who dumped and lost their money on him makes me giddier. FAFO
- the_tab_key@lemmy.worldEnglish2 days
Unfortunately, a lot of people didn’t have a choice in the matter.
- CosmoNova@lemmy.worldEnglish1 day
A lot of Americans voted for this clown, remember? And most of those voters were fine when DOGE destroyed the lives of many. Now it‘s their turn to pay up. Let this be a lesson for Americans. Subscribing into an ideology of selfishness and hatred comes at a cost for society.
- the_tab_key@lemmy.worldEnglish1 day
And a lot of Americans didn’t vote for this clown, remember? Those are still being punished with this bullshit.
- naught101@lemmy.worldEnglish2 days
Your money in savings and insurance and superannuation funds is often reinvested in shit like this.
It’s worth dropping yours an email and asking whether they do or not…
- Kr4u7@discuss.tchncs.deEnglish1 day
The 401k that americans use also automatically invested in it if they didnt opt out iirc
- pishadoot@sh.itjust.worksEnglish1 day
There isn’t a single 401k that Americans use. 401k is an index fund, an investment vehicle. I’m sure many included SpaceX but plenty did not.
And as an individual you can’t really “opt out” of individual stocks in the fund. You could roll all of your investment into a different fund that doesn’t include the stock you don’t want, but I don’t know of any broker that allows people to pick and choose which stocks they want to use in their 401k. You give them money, they manage the fund, that’s how it goes.
- naught101@lemmy.worldEnglish1 day
Oh, I hadn’t clocked until now that 401(k)s are a pension fund. I guess that means they are basically the same as superannuation.
- HerbGrower@slrpnk.netEnglish1 day
Mine is invested in the UK with a focus towards sustainability and green energy, so I am safe. Plus I don’t really care much if it doesn’t go negative. Just want to pay off my mortgage and then stop working much.
- naught101@lemmy.worldEnglish19 hours
Mine is also in a nominally ethical fund, but they still invest in e.g. nvidia. Not sure about spaceX though
Shorting the stock and making money on your own when Musk fails
(This is not financial advice. In fact it’s very dangerous as Musks companies often perform irrationally)
- underscores@lemmy.zipEnglish1 day
(This is not financial advice. In fact it’s very dangerous as Musk’s companies stocks are manipulated and rigged manually)
ftfy
